Many people think that Donald Trump’s threats and bluster are all a negotiating strategy. Threaten to destroy a country’s civilization; the country’s leaders’ knees will tremble; the country will surrender.
I’m not sure that works so well in a country where the government doesn’t care about the people and where the leaders believe that dying in the name of the cause is the path to martyrdom. But, effective or not, perhaps Trump is employing a strategy.
Recently, it struck me that the Iranians might be employing a negotiating strategy in their approach to Trump.
Years ago, a billionaire told me his strategy when he was negotiating to buy a person’s family-owned business:
“Offer the seller a fortune; let ’em taste it. Let the seller fantasize about the fancy new home and car, the yacht, and the private island. Let that sink in for a while. After the seller has his heart set on all of the fancy new things that he’ll own, then slowly bring down the price you’ll pay for his company. The new home is irresistible; the person simply has to own it; and the person will accept less money from you because the seller now desperately needs some deal — even a somewhat less valuable deal — to satisfy his new dreams.”
Let the seller taste a transaction; then, tighten the screws.
Perhaps the Iranians met my billionaire.
On Friday, the Iranians appeared to have reopened the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic.
Trump’s a hero! He can taste it.
The stock market goes through the roof. The price of oil plummets. Trump could fantasize about other prices beginning to decrease over time. Trump could go on the road and talk about affordability, instead of fighting about whether he’s better than the pope on foreign policy.
Trump could taste it.
In fact, you know he could taste it: He made 13 posts in an hour on Truth Social claiming total victory. He won! Thank God! It’s over.
This week, however, when negotiations recommence, the Iranians might tighten the screws. Maybe Iran will insist on reparations for the war. Or billions of dollars in sanctions relief. Or the right to enrich just a little bit of uranium. Or the right to impose tolls on ships that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Or the right to give money or weapons to Iranian allies in the Middle East.
Trump won’t be happy with this.
The war was over, for chrissakes. He was a hero. He could taste it.
It tasted swell.
Maybe Trump will show just a little bit more flexibility with the Iranians because he could savor the taste of peace — the tart of the deal. Maybe Trump should let the Iranians keep just a little bit of enriched uranium, or receive just a little bit more relief from sanctions, or maybe the U.S. and Iran should split the tolls that are charged for passing through the Strait.
After all, “unconditional surrender” or “regime change” were never really what Trump had in mind. Everyone knows he was just kidding about those things.
And ending the war would be great. Look at the Dow. Look at the price of a barrel of oil.
Will we ever know that this was the Iranians’ strategy?
Of course not.
Perhaps the ceasefire will end, and the war will resume.
Perhaps the ceasefire will technically end, the U.S. and Iran will agree on a few issues, and there will be no more shooting while the parties negotiate the rest.
Perhaps (although it seems unlikely) the parties will reach a deal on all of the issues in the next couple of weeks.
But we’ll never know what terms the U.S. would have accepted before the Iranians made their most recent move: They let Trump experience what ending the war would taste like, whetting his appetite, and causing him to be a bit more flexible in what he demanded in negotiations.
Mark Herrmann spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy (affiliate links). You can reach him by email at inhouse@abovethelaw.com.
The post The Tart Of The Deal appeared first on Above the Law.
